全球化、區域整合與中國崛起的條件

Globalization, Regional Integration, and the Rise of China

由於中國的規模巨大，它在世界經濟結構中的浮沈將直接改變資本主義世界體系的資源配置，因此中國是否崛起必須放置於世界經濟與權力結構的可能改變來評估。在這篇論文中，我們論證中國的崛起是植根於「全球化」的結構轉型，然而，與一般主流的解釋不同，我們認為，把全球化當成全球要素價格均等化是一項迷思，推動全球化現象的核心動力必須從美元金本位轉變為後來的美元本位來理解。美元金本位賦于了美國發行超過其黃金準備的美元，美元本位則更進一步地擴大美國從美元作為世界貨幣的鑄幣利得(seigniorage)，這一金融優勢使美國可以用信用賒欠的方式使用了遠超過其國內生產力的全球物資，並使得全球的經濟增長建立在美國市場的增長上。美元本位在1980年代的危機一方面造成拉丁美洲國家進口替代工業化的「結構調整」，另一方面則推動了東亞區域產業分工的轉型，使得中國接受大量依賴美國市場的出口導向外資。雖然出口導向工業化帶來中國GDP與外匯的快速擴大，我們論證，中國的崛起卻必須以走出「美元循環」為前提，要達到這一目標，中國除了必須進行產業升級外，還需要進行更深層的社會與政治改革以擴大內需規模。

Evaluation on the rise of China should be connected with the potential structural transformation of world economy and power because China's large size will directly change resource relocation of the world. In this paper, we argue that China's rising is rooted in the structural transformation of 'globalization'. While mainstream theory interprets globalization as the consequence of factor-price equalization, we argue that dollar standard is the main dynamics for globalization as we have seen today. Dollar standard empowers the U.S. financial muscle by which global economic growth is established on the growth of the US market. The dollar crisis during the first half of the 1980s induced the structural adjustment of Latin America on the one hand; it also pushed regional industrial division of labor of East Asia on the other. This structural transformation channels huge export-oriented capital into China and critically contributes to China's significant development since then. We argue, nevertheless, that China's rising has to rely on further industrial upgrade and domestic market more than that of the U.S. To achieve this long-term goal, China must carry out deeper social and political reform in order to transform savings into consumption.