政府危機處理與施政評價：論領導人印象對防疫表現評估的影響

Crisis Management and Government Performance:The Impact of Leader’s Impressions on Evaluations of Government Response to Covid-19

在新冠肺炎疫情下，台灣民眾如何評價美國與中國的防疫成效？國際情勢與疫情資訊龐雜變化之際，民眾又該如何做出判斷？作者以「印象理論」（image theory）作為研究架構，探討美中國家領導人印象和中國軍事威脅是否會對美中防疫成效認知造成影響。本文建構三個變數，分別是「美國領導人印象」、「中國領導人印象」，以及「敵對印象」，從而檢驗台灣民眾的主觀認知是否會影響其對美中兩國防疫成效的評價。本文採用「2020年中國印象：美國因素的影響評估」調查資料，藉由「有序勝算對數模型」（ordered logit models）進行檢證，探討領導人印象與軍事威脅的效應。實證結果符合研究預期，對於該國領導人印象愈佳的民眾，愈容易給與該國正面的防疫成效評價；去除軍事威脅後，對中國產生好感的民眾，傾向給與中國正面的防疫成效評價，卻未必願意肯定美國的防疫政策。此等結果證實印象理論的研究經驗，民眾身處龐雜資訊的情況下，愈仰賴領導人印象作為主要的資訊來源，以此作為施政評價的依據。此一傾向在危機時期尤為顯著，新冠肺炎作為2020年的主要危機，各國的危機處理成效促使民眾重新檢視各國的能力，惟民眾仍偏好以國家領導人印象、而非實際資訊，作為施政評價的依歸。

Amid the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, how do the Taiwanese public evaluate the performance of the United States’ and Chinese governments in handling the pandemic? How should people make judgments when the international situation and information about the coronavirus disease keep changing? Using “image theory as its research framework, this study explores whether the Taiwanese public’s impressions of U.S. and Chinese leaders and China’s military threat toward Taiwan affect their perceptions of the U.S. and China governments’ responses to Covid-19. We construct three variables: impression of U.S. leaders, impression of Chinese leaders, and enemy image. We utilize the 2020 China Image Survey and an “ordered logit model” to probe the effects of the leaders’ impressions and military threat when evaluating a government’s response. The findings reveal that Taiwanese people who have a better impression of a country’s leaders are more likely to rate that country’s government’s performance more positively; after removing the effect of the military threat, people who are fond of China tend to evaluate the Chinese government’s response more positively than that of the U.S. government. The results largely confirm the predictions of image theory. When information is complex, people are more prone to relying on their impressions of a country’s leaders--rather than on factual information-- as the basis for their evaluations of government performance. This tendency is particularly pronounced in times of crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, China’s military threat toward Taiwan does not affect the Taiwanese people’s assessment of government performance in other countries; it is only limited to the country where the threat originated.